← Radiant Origins Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Radiant Origins Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.5%
avg ELO -10.1 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296
· median 1296
· range 1296–1296
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1197
Q3 1381
1451
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
